Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
